The function of this report is to provide the Commission’s latest assessment of Scotland’s progress towards achieving a just transition to a low carbon economy, as required by our remit. The report’s key messages provide a synthesis of insights and findings from the Commission’s information-gathering and engagement work over the past year. They are split into Conditions for Success, the longer term strategic conditions required for a just transition, and Game Changers, critical policy steps that could be meaningfully progressed over the next 18 months. During 2024 the Commission has published advice on Grangemouth, Shetland and Investment. These briefings are included as annexes.

A research report on the subject of monitoring and evaluation for Scotland’s just transition is also published as an annex. The Commission makes a number of recommendations on the basis of this research, including the establishment of interim targets for just transition up to 2045, to be aligned with the new process on carbon budgets and forthcoming Climate Change Plan.

The Commission’s conclusion in its progress assessment is that Scotland is now at risk of going backwards on just transition. This section assesses progress on relevant policy development and sets out five key tests for 2025.

The report concludes with an overview of the Commission’s activities and engagement, followed by a forward look to priority areas of work and outputs for 2025.

Achieving a just transition in Scotland requires co-ordinated action and innovation at every level of our political structure and across civil society. The following are underlying factors that have been identified as consistent themes through the Commission’s structured engagement with people and places impacted by the transition over the past three years. These are the conditions that now need to be in place if Scotland’s climate transition is to be achieved in the fairest way.

1. Transformational leadership. The Scottish Government has shown leadership over recent years by committing at a comparatively early stage to a structured process of planning to deliver a just transition. As we move from planning to delivery, and given the significant challenges we have seen in achieving a whole-of-government approach, the Commission is now looking for tangible indicators of serious ambition from the top of Scottish Government. Operationalising just transition must now be a key priority. We expect to see just transition principles being rigorously applied across all relevant areas of policy. This will raise substantially the level of expectation on policymakers and employers, and galvanise the action required from different levels of government, public bodies, business, industry and communities. Failure to prioritise Just Transition outcomes will mean Scotland will not deliver on its just transition or fair work aspirations.
2. Get ahead of potential jobs gaps. A hallmark of just transition success is a consistent, properly-resourced process of anticipatory planning to prevent jobs gaps where these present as a clearly foreseeable risk. Jobs gaps occur when a reduction in one form of economic activity puts people out of work without a credible and timeous route for them into employment of equivalent standing. This poses a critical delivery risk to Scotland’s climate transition by encouraging workers to emigrate for opportunities or to leave the workforce entirely, weakening our skills base. A jobs gap is the starkest indicator of a disorderly and unjust transition. Using its convening power and appropriate leverage, government should require high emitting employers to support their workers through the transition as standard practice and secure concrete commitments from all relevant stakeholders in phase-down areas of economic activity, such as fossil fuel extraction, processing and usage, both in terms of at-risk places such as Grangemouth, Finnart, Shetland, the North East as well as specific roles such as gas boiler engineers and vehicle maintenance workers.
3. Put just transition at the heart of Scotland’s climate and economic policy. Scotland has embedded its approach to just transition planning over the past several years, albeit with critical areas requiring to be addressed rapidly in terms of effective monitoring and evaluation and the approach to regional planning. Ireland and other countries have studied the Scottish example carefully as they have developed their own approach. We are now well placed to build up from these foundations and make a step-change from a generic and aspirational framework to one that is structured, implementable, and costed, with clear lines of accountability. In 2025 Scotland embarks on a renewed approach to climate policy structured around carbon budgets, a new Climate Change Plan, the updated Scottish National Adaptation Plan 2024-2029 and proposed nature targets. A well-developed just transition policy process must be embedded within this new structure, including by establishing clear interim just transition targets up to 2045, based on agreed priority areas and detailed activities across, for example, 5-, 10, 15- and 20-year targets, with accountability attributed across relevant areas of government, agencies or mandated for external stakeholders.
4. Maximise the positive social and economic impact of new physical infrastructure. The aspiration to achieve a just transition will be tangibly felt by people across the country to the extent that just transition principles are seen to be meaningfully applied to the rapid expansion of new infrastructure rolled out as we address the climate crisis, including for renewable energy, digital provision, adaptation, transport and a low carbon built environment. This means securing a sustainable legacy in terms of high quality jobs with fair work protections and the development of the intergenerational skills base required for construction, operations, supply chains and manufacturing. It also includes the materials required and the changes our landscapes, scenery and marine environment will undergo. To ensure local communities are fully involved and derive maximum benefits, community wealth building principles must be embedded, building on Scottish Land Commission advice. This will require policy innovation, government leadership and co-ordination. A business-as-usual, market-led approach will see Scotland retain only a small portion of the social and economic up-side on offer from our climate transition and encourage costly delays.
5. Power-up Scotland’s social infrastructure. As identified in our 2022 report, Scotland’s social infrastructure primarily includes the care, health, cultural and education services that underpin economic performance and sustain the entire workforce. These will be critical for delivery of the Scottish Government’s Just Transition Outcomes, particularly on adaptation and resilience, and will be key to success alongside directly-affected sectors. Achieving the transformation in a just manner requires that we significantly expand the number and quality of jobs, skills and pay in the low-emitting social and cultural infrastructure sectors. Just transition plans and related economic and investment policies must be geared to develop a more robust social infrastructure, including measures for achieving the investment quantum and quality required, retraining and upskilling work, and tackling systemic inequalities.
6. Map and manage the risk of a “postcode lottery” effect. A key strategic risk in terms of distributional impacts and regional cohesion is that the costs and benefits accruing from the climate transition will be significantly more highly concentrated in some areas of the country than others. Success in addressing this challenge requires a two-step approach. Firstly, secure the environmental, social and economic “wins” through policy and regulation that supports communities in retaining the long-term value created by emerging forms of economic activity in places hosting such activity (such as forestry in Dumfries and Galloway or onshore wind in Shetland). Secondly, develop a clear set of measures, including taxation, to mitigate the risk of regional inequality. Some communities will have clearer opportunities to support community wealth building from new revenue streams, however this should not mean communities in other areas bear a disproportionate cost or are excluded from the positive economic impacts of the transition.

A commitment to just transition is about enabling effective climate delivery by negotiating complex social and economic changes. It is not an excuse for inaction or delay. Here we set out five key strategic steps on just transition which the Scottish Government can progress immediately as hallmarks of a strong legacy on just transition from the current Holyrood parliament.

1. Get the delivery model in place at regional level.  We have seen some limited progress towards just transition plans for critical economic sectors. The second principal dimension of the Scottish Government’s just transition planning framework (regional just transition plans) is yet to be developed in a way which will make good on the key principle of subsidiarity. Just transition challenges typically present at local or regional scales and require specific measures and monitoring at that level. The regional just transition plans will require a major new program of work with Scottish Government leading and coordinating efforts across 32 local authorities, public bodies, third sector, business and industry. The Scottish Climate Intelligence Service and Climate Delivery Framework are important new initiatives to build on. Key challenges to be addressed include local authorities’ constraints in terms of capacity and competencies to adequately address strategic issues and negotiate effectively, and how to put just transition at the heart of a new social contract with business. The model for regional just transition planning should support the agreement and delivery of a long-term vision, based on evidence-based interventions, legislation and guidance and setting requirements as part of a core just transition offer that local authorities should have a duty to deliver on, matched by appropriate resource and competencies, and embedding a consistent practice of information-sharing and collaboration across areas and regions. We will publish detailed advice and supporting research on the approach to regional just transition planning in our Aberdeen briefing due in Q1 2025.
2. A diverse future workforce for a diversified economy. A big push is needed over the next 18 months to deliver investment and support to colleges to deliver the skilled workforce of the future, and ensure the renewal of Scotland’s skills development landscape is geared towards a just transition so that education provision at all levels is aligned with the needs of the future workforce. Key growth areas are anticipated across nature-based jobs such as peatland restoration and woodland creation, renewables and the associated supply chain, retrofit, construction and civil engineering. In construction alone, forecasts suggest an additional 256,600 jobs by 2029 (CESAP). Success in workforce planning can unlock delivery in key sectors especially energy and the built environment and is critical for industry and small and medium-sized enterprise needs as well as social outcomes. The long-term security of household incomes, including for our most deprived areas, is vulnerable to negative effects related to the transition as we are seeing at Grangemouth. Action here needs to target not only young people, but adults returning to workforce and making the transition away from phase-down industries. Jobs will not simply be replaced like-for-like, from a high emission role to a so-called “green job”. Our skills development must therefore be aligned with a robust strategy to diversify the economy as well as the workforce for new industries.
3. Community right to shared ownership of renewable energy developments to underpin community wealth building. While powers to mandate community benefits and shared ownership are reserved, the Scottish Government can lead on this and develop a clear strategy for success in this area and as the area with the most extensive experience of onshore and offshore wind developments, the rest of the UK will be looking to Scotland on this as GB Energy and the National Wealth Fund take shape. To unlock the potential social and economic benefits of a major expansion of shared ownership, strategic breakthroughs are needed on (a) the capacity of local authorities and communities to take advantage of renewables developments and (b) access to finance for local authorities and communities. A recent report from Regen, “Sharing Power” provides further key insights we expect Scottish and UK governments to act on as shared ownership becomes a national priority.
4. Get a firm grip on just transition investment. The Commission has consistently warned of a major investment gap that needs to be addressed if Scotland’s just transition aspirations are to become a reality. Just transition investment can be analysed at two different levels. First, we need to ensure that all investment in the transition to a low carbon and climate resilient economy supports Scotland’s goals for social justice (for example in terms of fair work provisions, reform of public procurement). Second, we need to mobilise adequate investment for specific equitable outcomes on the social side of the transition, such as the delivery of the skilled workforce we need for retrofit and other growth employment areas, as well as shared ownership of renewables projects, peatland restoration and the future agricultural support model. The Scottish Government has progressed some initiatives on financing the climate transition, but without squarely addressing in a structured fashion the justice considerations associated with anticipated changes. We are not much closer to a strong, credible offer on just transition investment now than when we first reported on this topic in 2022. The next step must be to bring these threads together and make just transition delivery tangible, specific and investible, so that government and business can analyse and measure flows of just transition investment. We know the key areas where strategic investment is needed to support a just transition, and there is a wealth of tools available, including ensuring full just transition value is realised from public money invested through the Scottish National Investment Bank and other sources. It is now for the Scottish Government to lead on this.
5. Build effective co-working across four nations. New initiatives at UK level such as GB Energy and the National Wealth Fund have the potential to unlock some of the most critical and challenging elements of the just transition agenda in Scotland. To help influence and shape these projects, maximise the just transition impact of investment programs and make progress on key reserved dependencies, the Scottish Government will require a clear and proactive strategy to develop connections, share knowledge, and help to mainstream a just transition approach across four nations.

Based on the research report, the Commission has agreed the following recommendations for government.

1. Establish just transition targets up to 2045. As part of embedding just transition principles meaningfully within the refreshed climate process in Scotland, clear interim just transition targets up to 2045 should now be established, based on agreed priority areas and detailed activities across, for example, 5-, 10, 15- and 20-year targets, with accountability attributed across relevant areas of government, agencies or mandated for external stakeholders.
2. Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good. Start now. Given obvious limitations on capacity, funding and data, as well as the highly complex task of applying a coherent M&E approach to different plans (e.g. sectors, localities) there is significant risk of further delays in this area that will have a strong negative impact on the success of the just transition approach more broadly. What gets measured gets done.
3. Public reporting of monitoring for just transition performance should begin immediately, including development of an ongoing annual dashboard tracking progress. Our 2023 report identified as a critical next step that “meaningful M&E of the transition needs to begin as soon as possible.” As previously set out, a “two-speed” approach should allow for strategic delivery to be monitored and evaluated, meaningfully if not comprehensively. An example of a dashboard approach providing an overview of progress on just transition outcome measures is included in this report, based on data already available.
4. Work on the necessary enhancements to the data landscape should begin immediately. Actions should be allocated to specific owners both within Scottish Government directorates, agencies and responsible partners, supported by firm timelines for deliverables and sufficient resource.
5. Clarify roles and responsibilities. The Scottish Government appears well-placed currently to take on the role of monitoring, however the evaluation function would sit best with an independent group of appropriate expertise, such as the Commission or equivalent body.
6. The Scottish Government’s Just Transition Outcomes should be revised along the lines proposed in the research report.
7. Ensure coherence. As just transition plans for sectors and regions take shape, Scottish Government has an important role to play in working to ensure policy coherence through maintaining a shared vision of just transition and supporting the routine sharing of measures and data among relevant organisations.
8. Communicate the vision. To support public understanding and safeguard the social license for the changes underway, the key aspects of the approach to just transition planning, delivery, monitoring and evaluation should be communicated more widely, particularly to those groups who are vulnerable to negative impacts from the transition.
9. Embed independent scrutiny. There is clear scope for a future Just Transition Commission or equivalent body established on a permanent basis to add value to Scotland’s medium-long term just transition process, combining multistakeholder engagement and consensus-building with subject expertise and analytic capacity to deliver robust, independent monitoring, evaluation and development of the overall approach to just transition planning and delivery.
10. Share learnings. As part of its international just transition responsibilities, Scotland should proactively share key learnings and best practices on M&E internationally.

To view the Annexed content of the report, please follow the hyperlink or PDFs below. 

• Annex A: Measuring and Evaluating Success in the Scottish Just Transition
• Appendices
• Annex B: A Just Transition for Grangemouth
• Grangemouth Oil Refinery: Workers’ Perspectives
• Annex C: A Just Transition for Shetland
• Shetland, Community Benefit, and the Energy Transition
• Annex D: Investment for a Just Transition: A Starting Point
• Annex E: Scottish Government Policy Outputs