There is a prime opportunity for Scotland to reshape its industry towards clean solutions but that’s not happening and communities risk being left behind.

Gas flares and cooling towers at the Ineos refinery in Grangemouth make up some of the most striking images of the petrochemical age in Scotland. But maybe not for much longer. The company and the Scottish government face a tough choice: close completely or be part of a new industrial era. Regardless of the outcome, Grangemouth will be seen — not just nationally but globally — as a litmus test for whether governments can deliver a fair and just transition to a low-carbon economy.

I’ve seen first-hand how important these industries were to the local economy. I was born and raised in Falkirk, just a stone’s throw from Grangemouth. Every second kid at school seemed to have a parent who worked at the refinery or neighbouring industrial sites. I know the disruption that closing the refinery would have. But as a climate scientist, I also know the damage that failing to act on climate change will cause.

This apparent tension gets to the heart of the Just Transition Commission (JTC), where I’m now a commissioner. Our role is to provide independent scrutiny and advice to the Scottish government on whether it is delivering on its climate goals in a fair and just way.

We’ve just published our latest report after a multi-day trip to Grangemouth, where we met locals, Ineos representatives, refinery workers, college teachers and students to understand their perspectives on the just transition. The main takeaway is that the Scottish government is not yet delivering on its promises.

Compared with Scotland as a whole, Grangemouth already has high levels of social deprivation. Unemployment and income deprivation are more than twice the national average and school attendance rates are under 70 per cent.

With the Ineos petrochemical site at Grangemouth set to close next year, there is a real risk that things get worse. The site employs more than 1,000 people and has made crucial contributions to Scotland’s economy for decades.

You might think that our discussions in Grangemouth were centred around climate change — whether it was happening, how serious it is or whether Scotland should act. That wasn’t the case. No one we spoke to dismissed the need for climate action. No one pushed back. The friction was not about whether we should transition to clean energy, it was about how we deliver it.

The reality is that the Ineos closure is not really about climate change, either. The site at Grangemouth — which is old by international standards — is struggling to remain economically competitive. Harsh though it may be, private companies don’t hang around when there are better options elsewhere.
In that sense, the just transition could deliver. One way to avoid closure is to transition the site from the old economy — run on fossil fuels — to the future one, run on clean energy. A low-carbon shift is good for the economy, local community and Scotland’s climate goals.

The problem is that this needs long-term planning and investment, and that just hasn’t happened. Scotland has made strong climate commitments which oil refineries just aren’t a part of. The government can’t claim to have been caught by surprise.

This will not only be a loss for the local community but for Scotland as a whole. New industrial sectors are starting to emerge across the world and Europe, and we are simply not part of it. Scotland has been a global leader in rolling out clean power.

For that, the government deserves a lot of credit. But on industrial innovation, it’s not even in the game. What we saw at Grangemouth was the real risk that it loses out on highly skilled talent. These skills are sought after on the global stage. If Scotland can’t put them to work, other countries will.

Perhaps the most impressive part of the commission’s visit was to Forth Valley College. Its staff were more committed to students’ development than I’ve seen at any university. Despite being crippled by unstable and squeezed budgets, its teachers take in young locals and turn them into highly skilled workers that are immediately snapped up by industry. It’s producing the skilled workers that are lacking — not just in the UK, but globally — to deliver the energy transition.

But a shrinking funding pot, combined with the closure of some of the community’s most highly rated employers, risks breaking a key social contract. The next generation is supposed to have more and better opportunities than the previous one. On our present trajectory, they could have less. If Scotland is serious about delivering a just transition and safeguarding the future, it has to start with investing in its young people.

That’s not to say that the social contract goes only one way. Ineos itself has had its fair share of worker disputes. When we spoke to locals in Grangemouth, not everyone spoke highly of Ineos and other industrial employers. They felt that these private companies were failing to give back to the community.

Most of the workers were not from Grangemouth but from Falkirk and further afield. As someone who grew up in Falkirk and knew lots of parents who commuted into Grangemouth, I can attest to that. Those closest to the refinery and chemical plants see little of the benefits while having to put up with the high-density traffic and freight trucks. Delivering a just transition plan would also need to consider the give-back of industrial employers and the local community.

Grangemouth will be seen as a litmus test for whether the government can deliver a fair and just transition. Doing so will need co-ordinated action and collaboration between local councils, the Scottish government and the new leadership in Westminster.
At the moment, a just transition in Grangemouth is looking unlikely. It’s currently on an abrupt and disruptive path. If Scotland — and the UK more broadly — wants to stay relevant on the global stage, it needs to deliberately steer its industry toward innovations that move us forward.

The era of leadership in oil and gas is over. But that doesn’t need to spell the end of leadership on energy. There is a prime opportunity for Scotland to reshape its industry towards clean solutions. That’s not happening at the moment.

Its opportunities are being picked up elsewhere, and the end result is that its communities — in particular, the one that I grew up in — are at risk of being left behind. There is still time to deliver, but it will take bold action from those in charge.

The full article features in The Times on the 18th July 2024