06 March 2025
Dear Gillian and Alasdair,
Monitoring and evaluation: new research
We are writing to share a new research report that further develops our response to the task within our remit to advise “on the most suitable approaches to monitoring and evaluation” (M&E). This work builds directly on a report published in December. The new work published today shows how a national-level approach can be applied at a local or regional scale, taking Grangemouth as a test case.
We hope this research will inform ongoing work on a revised just transition plan for Grangemouth and deployment of new investments, as well as the further development of our just transition planning framework. Taken together, this research presents a clear and actionable opportunity for Scotland to embed a credible approach on just transition M&E at a moment when societies around the world are beginning to confront this common challenge, and as we in Scotland begin a new phase of our climate process with the introduction of carbon budgets.
Grangemouth: next steps
We welcome recent announcements regarding investment in the future of Grangemouth from both the Scottish Government and UK Government, as well as measures to support workers at the refinery who are being made redundant. The Commission has previously recommended the establishment of a clear and consistent link between ScotWind revenues and long-term strategic spending requirements to deliver a just transition.
We also welcome the proactive approach your officials have taken in engaging the Commission. The following are some principal strategic considerations as regards next steps, including the approach to deployment of scarce public funds to support a more just set of outcomes for Grangemouth. As with the new research, we see this advice as applicable not only for Grangemouth but for the broader challenge for workers, communities and industry in achieving a just transition.
Bridge the jobs gap. The new industrial mix at Grangemouth will likely take some years to replace the employment lost from the refinery, including activities within Project Willow, as emerging technologies become established. Consequently there is a premium on investment that provides a rapid jobs stimulus to the region here and now. Consideration should be given to public works programmes, including in retrofit, solar panel fitting, etc. The built environment should be a central part of the transition as a credible destination of choice for workers, as is clear from the scale of opportunities set out in the Heat in Buildings bill consultation. Funds should be made available to local authority bids as direct works departments could be used to deliver apprenticeships and engage local contractors as well as in-house workforce with assurances on fair pay and conditions.
Set conditions. In negotiating the terms of investment, including equity stakes, governments should identify good practices in business and investment that support social and environmental sustainability in a way that is credible for trade unions and the public sector and can be proposed rapidly. Existing businesses within the cluster should be screened against these criteria to assess the suitability of future funding. The Commission plans to publish in May research and detailed advice on the approach to “just transition conditionalities” for Grangemouth and more broadly.
Ensure strategic co-ordination. Close collaboration and exchange between governments will be necessary to ensure efforts are strategically aligned and avoid duplication of effort. The greater flexibility around the funds announced by the Scottish Government should prove strategically useful in responding to the most pressing needs for the area, given the value of multi-year funding and potential to generate critical social and economic returns from sub-commercial investments.
Build on strong points in training and skills. Forth Valley College remains central to the delivery of good outcomes for Grangemouth, especially at this critical phase of the energy transition. With additional funds an institution such as the College could expand what it can offer to workers taking up training, including through maintenance funding (e.g. skills wallet approach), expanding apprenticeship provision and reversing long-term cuts to capacity and operations.
Support the community. Investment in Grangemouth’s future should aim to secure a sustainable and diversified economic model in which the local community has a clear stake and say, addressing the separation created in recent years between Grangemouth’s community and the industrial site it hosts. Building confidence and capacity in community organisations will help support those with strong community projects in developing these.
Apply lessons to a plan for oil and gas workers. While Grangemouth is critical to the future of industrial Scotland, lessons need to be rapidly applied if we are to manage the challenge of the considerably larger job losses that are already underway in the North Sea. The speed of job losses here may depend on the volatility of commodity prices, but there is no doubt the basin is declining and workers require support to transition to new jobs if we are to avoid a disorderly and unjust transition. Due to the fragmented nature of oil and gas employment in Scotland, this may not yet be visible in large numbers of redundancies made simultaneously by a large employer. Grangemouth shows clearly the value of emerging forms of industrial activity (e.g. retrofit, renewables) as a destination for workers exiting phase-down sectors.
Establish requirements of high carbon employers. Grangemouth is a test case that provides a reference point for how the transition away from high carbon industrial activities is being managed, for workers, communities and businesses. The current situation highlights the continued absence of a clear set of standard expectations on high carbon employers, supported by incentives and regulation. This risks setting a precedent that private companies can exit a business area without adequate planning, leaving the public purse to bear the cost of transitioning the workforce and subsidising private commercial operations without appropriate guarantees on economic and social return on investment. To avoid this costly reactive mode of response, the Commission previously recommended that government work to ensure those with responsibility for the highest emitting industrial sites are required to consult, negotiate and publish a just transition plan for how the social dimension of transition will be managed.
We would welcome the opportunity to meet with you to discuss these matters.
Yours sincerely,
Professor Dave Reay and Satwat Rehman
Co-Chairs of the Just Transition Commission