This research was commissioned in order to test out and refine the findings of the report published in December 2024, Measuring and Evaluating Success in the Scottish Just Transition. That report produced a national just transition theory of change (ToC) for Scotland. This analysis looks at how that work can be applied at a local or regional scale, taking Grangemouth as a test case with the aim of identifying any shortcomings in the approach and gather insights about how a national level M&E framework can be adapted and applied at a sub-national scale.

Further objectives are as follows:

1. To identify what is practical and achievable now in terms of JT M&E approaches for Grangemouth and refine the M&E approach where required,
2. To compare and contrast with the M&E approach set out by Scottish Government in the Grangemouth Just Transition plan, flagging key areas for improvement/gaps between their planned approach and the JTC recommendations, as well as ways to bridge these gaps,

The report also provide a toolkit for how the national ToC was applied to Grangemouth. The intention is this will guide future applications to other Just Transition cases.

Throughout the report, we have offered reflections related to each of these aims. Here, we therefore focus down on key recommendations for the Scottish Government and for the Just Transition Commission, who are intended to use this report to facilitate their scrutiny of the Scottish Government:

• To review the breadth of the approach taken, recognising that whilst many Just Transition concerns are raised by the Grangemouth Industrial Cluster, wider Just Transition issues affect Grangemouth and the surrounding areas. The retention of the scope identified at the national level can ensure the representation of both place-based concerns, and that wider concerns and opportunities are acknowledged. Insights from place-based applications can then be used to refine the national ToC.
• Identify and map causal pathways, where mechanisms inform actions that deliver outcomes related to the overall aim. This will ensure that the actions/interventions made will meaningfully influence the desired aim, as well as aiding the attribution of accountability and responsibility for each outcome.
• Identify and specify mechanisms not just outcomes, as these enable causal pathways and help to determine accountability and responsibility. This requires building on and refining the transition pillars and levers identified as part of the GIJPT and making the relationship between them clear.
• Evaluation and monitoring should begin proactively, recognising pressing Just Transition concerns and applications, so that the long-term impact of ongoing industrial transformations can be understood for local communities and environments.
• Outcome and mechanism targets should be set for what success looks like in Grangemouth. This document presents a monitoring and evaluation framework focused on yearly change in measures, yet interim and final targets are needed to understand what a ‘just transition’ would look like. For example, there is a yearly improvement for the fuel poverty rate in Falkirk but 13,000 households remain in fuel poverty: what is the target number of households in fuel poverty in the next five years, ten years and to 2045? Having a set of targets for success for both outcomes and mechanisms would support accountability and provide a joined up vision for the Just Transition in Grangemouth.
• Where insufficient accountability and responsibility for Just Transition outcomes is being achieved, explore ways in which achievement of these results can be incentivised or enforced by external actors, including the Scottish Government itself.
• Acknowledging that on the whole, Just Transition interventions around the future of Grangemouth Industrial Cluster have been made too late, a proactive approach should be taken to identify other upcoming place-based sites of concern. This may, for instance, include Mossmorran or other large industrial hubs.
• As noted in the introduction, the rankings given in the report presents the authors’ views of Just Transition priorities for Grangemouth. These rankings should be led by locally relevant stakeholders, either to validate or update them. This requires a participatory process, which should also be open to deliberately determined Just Transition visions.
• Localised test case applications should be used to inform and refine the national Theory of Change, recognising that this should be kept “live” as Just Transition priorities evolve and emerge. This continued process of refinement will also allow the alignment and gathering of required datasets.
• To widely communicate the vision held for the Just Transition and the approach used. Our ethnographic fieldwork exposed limitations in the community’s understanding of the term Just Transition. At the same time, the Grangemouth case is illustrative of breakdowns in responsibility. To engender cross-stakeholder support, the vision and approach for the Just Transition must be clear and widely communicated so that it is widely understood and receives support. This will require new forms and styles of communication, including public outreach alongside a long-term commitment to meaningful participation

Measuring and evaluating success in the Scottish Just Transition – Phase 1 report
Interview: How Scotland can get “ahead of the curve” on Monitoring & Evaluation for just transition

This report has been updated as at March 2025 to reflect an amendment to references.