This is the fourth and final instalment of our series of written briefings based on the people-and-place-based approach we have taken as a Commission over the past 18 months. The other three briefings focus on Grangemouth, Shetland and Dumfries and Galloway. Previously the Commission published advice on a sectoral basis, aligned with the Scottish Government’s just transition planning for four critical economic sectors: energy, land use and agriculture, transport, and the built environment and construction.

After 50 years of drilling in the North Sea, the decline of the basin brings with it a host of strategic questions for Aberdeen and the North East. What support will workers whose employment is tied to fossil fuels receive to transition into new roles, and to what extent will they be able to shape their own economic futures? How can their skills and experience best be redeployed to strengthen growth areas of the offshore clean energy economy, and what retraining and reskilling is required? How can the region best manage the impact of lost livelihoods and a continued reduction in the prominent role oil and gas has played in the region’s economic development over the past half century?

Along with Grangemouth, some of the most urgent and geographically concentrated changes brought about by the transition to a low carbon economy are those currently underway in the North East. A co-ordinated response and a credible plan that helps avoid the harms of previous unjust and disorderly phase-downs of coal and steel will require close co-operation between different levels of government, as well as multi-stakeholder participation to build and sustain social consensus on the most challenging elements of these developments. A just transition plan for the region could add value here, but what should this look like, and what broader lessons can be applied to different areas of Scotland?

Investment decisions, policy and regulation will determine the extent to which the costs and benefits of the transition are distributed equitably for the region. The quality of community participation in shaping the strategic approach, delivery model and accountability structures for key elements of the region’s transition to a low carbon will also be critical for achieving fair outcomes.

Energy

1. The decline of oil and gas production in the North Sea has been underway for a quarter of a century and the current path is not delivering a just transition. Without urgent and ambitious action, investment and government leadership, Scotland’s offshore transition will not take place fairly, with harmful effects on workers, communities, employers and the regional economy of the North East that could otherwise be avoided.
2. There is still no transition plan for oil and gas workers. Industry, business, workers and communities need government to establish more favourable conditions for an orderly transition by setting out a clear plan for oil and gas workers, with actions allocated to accountable owners, investments, critical path analysis, contingency mapping and mitigation, and active monitoring and evaluation. In the context of global economic volatility, the pace and sequencing of the transition will be unjust if determined mainly by turbulent commodity prices. The fragmented nature of both the fossil fuel and renewables industries makes effective planning more challenging but also more critical. To avoid harms to workers and communities and support new industry, governments must now take a bold, innovative approach that maximises leverage to set standards, establish pathways, create jobs, and manage shocks.
3. Accelerated deployment of offshore clean energy is essential and for this to happen employment in the offshore wind and associated transition industries must be made more attractive. Renewables have a key role to play in delivering a just transition provided robust minimum standards are achieved across the industry for pay, conditions, health and safety regulation and union recognition. Managed with real vision and determination, the offshore clean energy economy (including wind, decommissioning, CCUS and green hydrogen) can deliver more good jobs than today’s oil and gas sector. Recent investment decisions and redundancies in renewables underscore the importance of sustaining a policy and investment environment that can help sustain progress in decarbonising the economy and creating jobs.
4. Step up the domestic supply chain for the long term. We need a clear plan for building up the domestic supply chain and manufacturing for renewables to mitigate the loss of livelihoods from oil and gas, including using existing policy levers such as licensing and procurement strategically to enable advances in domestic supply chains, progress working conditions and community wealth building.
5. A clear plan for training will retain our precious skills base. The transition plan for the North Sea should establish diverse pathways to new roles for oil and gas workers, including renewables and decommissioning but also key growth areas such as retrofit of buildings throughout Scotland. Workers need a clear and credible offer on training, with employers taking responsibility for supporting this alongside government action.
6. Face hard truths. Change is challenging, especially for industries that have established deep historical connections in particular regions. Avoiding difficult conversations risks sustaining an environment of division when cohesion and collaboration are needed to achieve a just transition. Working with industry, supportive action is required for proactive engagement with workers and communities most impacted on the transition away from oil and gas while building a unified vision on a fair, low emission future.
7. The UK Government must work closely and rapidly with Scottish Government to bridge the widening jobs gap, and so ensure the UK retains, supports and enhances the skilled workforce required for the transition. Alongside submissions to the brief consultation on the future of the North Sea that recently concluded, the UK Government should take cognisance of the extensive consultations and academic studies already undertaken, with findings that support the key strategic questions, including Platform’s “Our Power” report, Powering up the Workforce (Robert Gordon University), the work of the Just Transition Lab at the University of Aberdeen, analysis by the Scottish Trades Union Congress, and Systemiq’s recent report, Delivering a rapid, orderly and just energy transition for the UK Continental Shelf.

Regional planning

1. Just transition planning for regions and sites should address the extremely urgent reality on the ground. The Scottish Government should initiate urgently a planning process for sites and regions by setting out the scope, core objectives, principles, roles and responsibilities, and governance arrangements to enable rapid progress in bringing together key stakeholders to begin joint planning efforts. Relatively short timescales for the production of initial plans for sites and regions will help mitigate the risk of delay and avoid making the perfect the enemy of the good.
2. Good regional just transition planning is a long-term commitment. One-off, short-term or ad-hoc planning efforts are likely to have significantly less enduring value in mapping changes, managing the risks and maximising the opportunities of the climate transition than planning processes which can build up knowledge, adapt to best practice, develop meaningful monitoring and evaluation approaches, apply lessons learned and develop key relationships among stakeholders for the long-term, out to 2045.
3. The success of just transition planning for regions and sites will depend to a large extent on resourcing the process. A strong process will need to be underpinned by investment, both in terms of sustaining capacity to facilitate the process and (as with the EU Just Transition Fund) financing for delivery of associated projects and interventions.
4. Build on existing strengths. Regional and site planning processes are well placed to draw on the principal elements of Scotland’s mature approach to just transition policymaking, including the extensive range of policy development, evidence, analysis and existing initiatives across the country, such as those with a direct focus on just transition, such as Focus North and the Grangemouth Future Industries Board, as well as others collaborative initiatives that have fostered valuable linkages and developed understanding of relevant strategic issues. These include Regional Economic Strategies, Regional Economic Partnerships, Regional Land Use Partnerships, Regional Transport Partnerships, LHEES, local authority climate plans and strategies (such as Aberdeenshire’s Route Map to 2030 and Net Zero Aberdeen), community planning including local place plans, local outcome improvement plans, and locality plans.
5. One size won’t fit all but core principles apply. A purely standardised , one-size-fits-all approach may not be optimal for co-ordinating actions that positively shape the impacts of the transition to a low carbon economy across the country. The key principles in establishing the appropriate scale for regional and site based planning should be that planning activities
   • cover an area and community defined through a well-evidenced rationale in terms of the risks and opportunities entailed in the transition,
   • builds meaningfully on established multistakeholder initiatives,
   • supports full and active participation by local community organisations ,
   • has sufficient correspondence with the data landscape, and
   • covers all localities in Scotland in sum.

   The Commission has previously recommended that just transition plans be a requirement for each of Scotland’s highest emitting sites, and looks forward to scrutinising the next of these (Mossmorran). Government should set a clear expectation that employers play a positive role in managing anticipated closures and greening in a way that benefits workers and communities.

6. Subsidiarity has the potential to unlock just transition planning and delivery at regional level. Local authorities report that they have neither the money nor the competencies to take full advantage of the climate transition and manage the changes underway. Regional planning can add value by fostering a high-quality, well-evidenced, multi-stakeholder assessment of where powers lie and how the public sector could best be adapted to meet the growing challenge of economic transition.
7. Take a consensus-driven, collaborative approach. Just transition planning at any scale adds greatest value through active multi-stakeholder participation, including communities (which are likely to require specific forms of support to resource strong and consistent involvement), local authorities, business, industry, trade unions, environmental organisations, public sector, third sector and academia. A process which embeds regular information-sharing and cross-collaboration across different regions and sites to share insights and lessons learned will help support tangible progress.
8. Regional skills planning can unlock just transition delivery. A core element of success will be determined by the creation and development of place-based collaborations among key stakeholders to identify current and future skills needs, better align learning provision with these needs and support a dynamic approach that can recognise and respond to changes in demand. Skills planning at national level can struggle to create and sustain effective place-based collaborations, so the regional dimension is critical for effective delivery. A strong and well supported national skills strategy would be a key enabler.

Annex A: Regional Planning for a Just Transition – A case study for the North East of Scotland

Annex B: Just Transition Commission Event Feedback from NESCAN Hub