Imagine a world of flower rich meadows, woodlands reverberating with birdsong, seas teeming with life, healthy affordable and locally produced food, a thriving high quality Scottish timber trade and sustainable fishing and aquaculture. Bits of that world exist in Scotland but not for everyone and under current trajectories, it may not exist for future generations either.

A Just Transition to a better future is about more than low carbon. A Just Transition is just as much about high nature.

Nature is our life support system and it’s our first line of defence against climate change. But our relationship with nature is not working. Since prehistory, nature has supplied human populations with all their needs. Despite what we may think, our level of dependency on nature has not decreased over this time: we still depend on nature for clear air, clean water, productive soils, timber, food and fibre products, medicines  and mental well being. These are all supplied to us, for free. But they are becoming less reliable.

It is clear that we’re using and losing our natural resources much more quickly than they can regenerate. We continue to take from nature but we do not give back, or give space or time to regenerate. Land and sea use, habitat loss and fragmentation, pollution, climate change, over exploitation of natural resources and the impact of non native species are driving biodiversity loss and ecocystem simplification. As we lose the diversity of our ecosystems, they become less resilient to change and nearer the possibility of tipping points and ecosystem collapse.

What this means is that we are spending our natural capital now and not putting anything aside for the future. The outlook for future generations looks poor, unless we can turn around how we use our natural resources and how we ensure they can regenerate.

These are global issues and we will not solve them alone. We live on a biologically interconnected planet. Oceans and weather systems link our continents and act as feedback loops. Warmer seas generate faster winds. Polar melting impacts ocean circulation, sea level rise and feeds into wave height and damage during storm events. These changes are now baked into our global systems and even if we stopped all emissions tomorrow, change is now inevitable. But, if natural systems are healthy, they help reduce and mitigate these impacts and they help us adapt to the future.

Unfortunately however, the pressures on natural systems across the world are increasing. We are losing species and habitats and our biodiversity is less intact and therefore less resilient. When biodiversity and ecosystems are less resilient to climate change, biodiversity loss is amplified. Feedback loops are feeding each other.

Without international consensus on ways to limit emissions and protect biodiversity, these feedback loops will continue. The global risk management assessment by the Society of Actuaries and University of Exeter  shows that we have massively underestimated unmitigated climate change and nature driven risks. We have accepted much higher levels of risk than is broadly understood, or would be accepted if we did understand them. We are not calculating our risks adequately. For example, commonly used ‘net zero’ carbon budgets give a 50/50 chance of limiting warming to well below 2°C. In other words, the chance of them failing to limit warming is just as high as the chance of them actually limiting warming. The report concludes that the planet is heading for insolvency unless we change course.

Despite knowing we’re taking huge risks with our future, we still suffer a disconnect between what’s important and what’s urgent. This is sometimes deliberately cultivated as a diversionary tactic to delay or prevent the kinds of change needed for a just transition to a fairer, ecologically healthy future. It is clear what we need to do. But the longer we delay, the more severe the 10 year risks become and the greater their impact.

This has been shown very clearly through the application of risk analysis to the earth’s systems in the annual World Economic Forum reports, where, since 2022,  the top four 10 years risks are all environmental. At the same time, two year risks include only one or two environmental risks as we get distracted by other human made issues.

What’s more, the longer we delay, the more expensive it becomes. The Act now, save later report by University of Edinburgh and Scottish Wildlife Trust shows the positive and negative consequences of acting now: action now costs less and keeps future options open. What that exact cost is extremely difficult to say. What is clear however is that while significant investment is required, payback on that investment will dwarf it. There are some clear investment wins in peatland restoration for example,  but arguing about how much finance is needed is a distraction. It is a lot. Let’s find it.

But when people in Scotland are asked, they are clear that they want to see action on climate and nature. 82% of people in Scotland said they had noticed the impact of climate change, nature loss or pollution in their local area. 74% of people want to see legal targets to improve Scotland’s natural environment.

So given that we are open to huge levels of risk, that we have baked in change ahead of us and that effective action requires international cooperation, which looks difficult to say the least, what then are our options?

1. Take a reality check: taking a cold hard look at the science, with a risk assessment approach that clearly shows the level of risk we are currently facing
2. Provide leadership: recognising that mitigating these risks is going to require very tough decisions with immediate impacts but ultimately our long term survival.
3. Cost effectiveness: recognising that investing now is by far the cheapest and most effective strategy to work towards a better future
4. Use political capital: voters in Scotland want to see action on the environment. Voters in the next Scottish election will be voting on the strength of party environmental commitments.
5. Don’t underestimate the problem: peatland restoration, woodland restoration and creation are the easiest actions to cost up but let’s not be fooled into thinking that those alone are enough.
6. Bring everyone into the conversation: communities, individuals and organisations want to do something for climate and nature. Efforts are widely distributed and isolated. Coordination of effort and strong unified voices will inspire action and momentum. In contrast, misinformation, disinformation and attacks on others serves to overshadow, intimidate and drown out all the amazing community and individual initiatives.
7. Give communities a voice and the ability to act: managing local resources requires input from local level into an accepted and agreed national framework. This is largely missing in Scotland. Without both elements, progress is slow and too easily stymied.

This article was published in The Herald on 25 October 2025.